Publications and Media

Peer-Reviewed Articles

Welton Chang and Philip Tetlock, “Rethinking the Training of Intelligence Analysts”, Intelligence and National Security Journal, Vol. 31, No. 6, February 2016, 903-920.

Welton Chang, Eva Chen, Barbara A. Mellers, and Philip E. Tetlock, “Developing expert political judgment: The impact of training and practice on judgmental accuracy in geopolitical forecasting tournaments“, Judgment and Decision Making Journal, Vol. 11, No. 5, September 2016, 509-526.

Welton Chang, Elissabeth Berdini, David Mandel, and Philip E. Tetlock, “Restructuring Structured Analytic Techniques in Intelligence”Intelligence and National Security Journal, November 10, 2017.

Welton Chang, Pavel Atanasov, Shefali Patil, Barbara A. Mellers and Philip E. Tetlock, “Accountability and Adaptive Performance under Uncertainty: The Long-Term View“, Vol. 12, No. 6, November 2017.

Michael Horowitz, Brandon Stewart, Dustin Tingley, Michael Bishop, Laura Resnick, Margaret Roberts, Welton Chang, Barbara Mellers, and Phil Tetlock, “What Makes Foreign Policy Teams Tick: Explaining Variation in Group Performance At Geopolitical Forecasting” (under review)

Welton Chang, Ferdinand Vieider, Philip Tetlock, “Accountability: A Meta-Analysis of Effect Sizes (and Situated-Identity Analysis of Research Settings)” (in preparation)


Assessing the Performance and Effectiveness of Intelligence Collection (with Andrew Harter), Department of Defense, 2014

Cyber warfare: An analysis of the means and motivations of selected nation states (with Charles Billo), Institute for Security Technology Studies, 2004


Professional Journal Articles

“Fixing Intel: Reforming the Defense Intelligence Enterprise for Better Analysis”, American Intelligence Journal, Vol. 31, No.1, 2013

“Warfare in the Cyber Domain” (with Sarah Granger), Air and Space Power Journal, Vol. 24, No. 3, 2012

“Failing to Plan is Planning to Fail: When CONOPs Replace OPORDs” (with Thomas Doherty), Small Wars Journal, August 2012

“We’re Fighting an Intelligence War: A Strategic-Level Intelligence Advisor’s Lessons Learned”, Military Review, July 2012

“Getting it Right: Assessing the Intelligence Community’s Analytic Performance”, American Intelligence Journal, Vol. 30 No.2, 2012



“Examining the Russian Disinformation Campaign”, op-ed, Inside Sources, January 4, 2017 (syndicated)

“Restraint is Critical on Space Policy”, op-ed, Inside Sources, December 28, 2017 (syndicated)

“The War Against Disinformation”, op-ed, Inside Sources, December 18, 2017 (syndicated)

“Paris Pullout Shows How The US Is Shrugging Off Its Global Leadership”, op-ed, Defense One, November 18, 2017

“America Must Weigh the Costs of Continued War in Afghanistan”, op-ed, Inside Sources, August 23, 2017 (syndicated)

“Keep climate change amendment to the NDAA”, op-ed, The Hill, July 17, 2017

“The United States should not sell precision guided weapons to Saudi Arabia – this is why”, op-ed, PennLive, June 13, 2017

“Do the Hard Work of Diplomacy on North Korea”, op-ed, US News & World Report Debate Club, April 20, 2017

“Don’t Cut Funds to Sanctuary Cities”, letter to the editor, Philadelphia Inquirer, April 4, 2017

“Stand By South Korea”, op-ed, US News & World Report, March 10, 2017

“Forecasting the Future of the Mosul Dam”, article, Superforecasting in Action Blog, January 26, 2017

“An Immigrant’s Dream”, op-ed, Truman Doctrine Blog, January 18, 2017

“Why I Fight”, op-ed, The Policy, September 2, 2016

“Why Now Is The Time To Establish a Standalone Cyber Force”, op-ed, Task and Purpose, April 6, 2016

“The Psychology Behind Strong Emotional Reactions to Bowe Bergdahl”, op-ed, Task and Purpose, January 18, 2016

“The 3 Conditions That Must Be Met At Home Before The US Takes More Action In Syria”, op-ed, Task and Purpose, November 19, 2015

“The Use Of Military Force Is About More Than Expected Outcomes”, op-ed, Task and Purpose, October 23, 2015

“More Cyber Professionals At The Pentagon Doesn’t Guarantee Better Security”, op-ed, Task and Purpose, October 20, 2015

“How Should We Carry The Emotional Weight Of Squandered Campaigns?”, op-ed, Task and Purpose, October 16, 2015

“Don’t Let Foreign Interpreters Who Supported Troops Get Left Behind”, op-ed, Task and Purpose, September 1, 2015 (syndicated, Business Insider)

“Go Set A Watchdog on Iran”, op-ed, Inside Sources, July 26, 2015 (syndicated)

“Eternal Sunshine of the Bureaucratic Mind: accountability for outcomes, not process, required for real change”, op-ed, Federal Times, August 4, 2014

“How We Learned To Stop Worrying and Love the ‘Net”, op-ed, C4ISR Magazine, July 31, 2014

“How To Think About Iraq”, op-ed, Inside Sources, June 29, 2014


Op-eds syndicated in the following local newspapers

The Detroit News

Palm Beach Post

Charleston Gazette-Mail

Victorville Daily Press

San Antonio Express-News

Las Vegas Sun

Sun Sentinel

Tulsa World

Northwest Indiana Times

Camden Courier-Post

Albany Times-Union

Dayton Daily News



Non-Prophets Podcast Guest Appearance, November 5, 2017

WURD radio segment on the terrorist attack in NYC, November 2, 2017

Non-Prophets Podcast Interview, September 30, 2017

Public News Service radio segment on climate change, April 5, 2017

My Medium blog, focused on the intersection of psychology and national security as well as productivity

Video on the Art and Science of Superforecasting, Knowledge@Wharton, 2016

One of my productivity articles was featured on Lifehacker

Offered some thoughts on Veteran’s Day, 2015

Assisted Phil Tetlock with preparation and slide presentation on Master Class, A Short Course in Superforecasting, 2015

Personal profile in: Fighting for the Dream: Voices of Chinese American Veterans from World War II to Afghanistan, by Victoria Moy, 2014

Co-authored (with Lisa Furlong) articles in the Dartmouth Alumni Magazine Veterans Issue, 2012



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